Press Release - Ardley’s Q1 2025 Mortgage Market Insights report
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Only 1.48% of Borrowers Qualify for Rate & Term Refis, Not the Widely Reported 6%, Says Ardley Technologies
New data from Ardley Technologies reveals unexpected borrower trends across first and second lien activity
Reston, V.A. - April 11, 2025 - Despite widespread reports suggesting that 6% of U.S. mortgage borrowers could benefit from refinancing, new data from Ardley Technologies shows that just 1.48% actually qualify for rate-and-term refinancing, once lender requirements and net tangible benefit (NTB) standards are factored in.
This insight comes from Ardley’s Q1 2025 Mortgage Market Insights Report, the company’s inaugural quarterly release, based on borrower behavior and loan data from portfolios representing nearly 10% of all U.S. mortgages. The report gives lenders a reality check—and a competitive edge—in a market shaped by rate shifts and evolving borrower expectations.
“There’s a big difference between theoretical eligibility and actual qualification,” said Nathan Den Herder, Founder & CEO at Ardley Technologies. “Media coverage often zeroes in on rate thresholds, but real qualification depends on second liens, credit profiles, NTB calculations, and other nuances. Data from Ardley’s platform brings those hidden factors into view.”
Key findings from Ardley’s Q1 2025 Mortgage Market Insights report include:
- Refi reality check: Only 1.48% of borrowers actually qualify to refinance — far below the widely cited 6%
- Second liens dominate: Applications for second liens represented 97.9% of all applications in Q1, with an average home equity application amount of $60,000
- March mortgage spike: The majority of first mortgage applications in Q1 were received in March, including 88% of all rate/term applications
The report also reveals findings on typical borrower decision-making turn times, the percentage of rate/term borrowers who ultimately chose cash out refinances, how 25- and 50-basis point drops impact the volume of eligible borrowers, as well as borrower equity trends that include the nation’s average loan-to-value ratio, home value, and loan balance.
“We’re seeing borrower behavior that doesn’t always align with what lenders expect,” said Haley Rader, Head of Product at Ardley. “But that gap is an opportunity. These insights give lenders the power to adapt faster, target better, and win more business. That’s the mission of Ardley’s Mortgage Market Insights report—to ground decision-making in real borrower behavior, not speculation.”
To download a copy of Ardley’s Q1 2025 Mortgage Market Insights.
About Ardley Technologies, Inc.
Ardley is an enterprise class software platform that removes friction for mortgage servicers, originators, and borrowers. Ardley Retain leverages captive borrower data to identify, structure, and deliver loan offers directly to borrowers with Navigator (borrower-driven loans) & Autopilot (automatic underwriting). Our products are reactive to all rate cycles and provide scalable, API-led integrations. For more information, please visit ardley.com.
Media Contact:
Taylor Potter, COO
(918) 338-6440
taylor.potter@ardley.com
www.ardley.com